We don’t have to wait around for the official NBER ruling to sense that a new recession is already here. Or, perhaps more accurately, the last one never really ended — it just got less worse.
The new recession won’t hit marketing like the last one. There will probably be two major differences.
First — marketing spending will not take a big hit. In fact, it may increase. Based on my informal conversations with people around the industry (one advantage of being the president of the NYAMA is that I get to speak to a lot of people) is that this downturn will accelerate changes already underway. In general budgets will not be frozen like 2008/2009. Rather, there rate of shifting spending will increase.
Second — Mobile is finally taking off, thanks to the iPad, the Galaxy and, perhaps, the Kindle Fire. And what is interesting is that they are all taking very different routes to their success (assuming Fire doesn’t miss).
The promise of these technologies has been tantalizing for years. I worked with E-Ink when it was an MIT start-up that used pager technology to create changing in-store displays. Our project was to help increase visibility of their company and technology. One of our ideas was for a dress to be made out of E-Ink. Another was for the cover of the New Yorker to be in E-ink. The ideas were right but the timing was wrong. Then came the Kindle and changed all of that.
The possibilities of mobile marketing are only beginning to be explored. Digital is mobile is social is digital. I suspect that the turmoil this will create in the marketing world will be tremendous.
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