Mark this date: June 18, 2007. That was the date when Al Reis made the bold prediction based on his theories of marketing. The Ad Age headline: WHY THE IPHONE WILL FAIL
Prediction No. 1: The iPhone will be a major disappointment.
The hype has been enormous. Apple says its iPhone is “literally five years ahead of any other mobile phone.” A stock-market analyst says, “The iPhone has the potential to be even bigger than the iPod.”
I think not. An iPod is a divergence device; an iPhone is a convergence device. There’s a big difference between the two.
In the high-tech world, divergence devices have been spectacular successes. But convergence devices, for the most part, have been spectacular failures.
Hmmmm. I’m beginning to think that time has proven that prediction to be slightly off the mark.